The
big rivalries are here…
By
Jeff Sallas
Well it is
that time again. The time most SEC
football fans wait the whole year for.
The big-time end of the season rivalries. All of them will be played over the next 2 weeks. We kick things off this week with
Florida/Florida St, Auburn/Bama and South Carolina/Clemson. Next week we get Ole Miss/Miss St and
Georgia/Georgia Tech plus several other good games. I have Auburn/Bama is my game of the week simply because it has
major conference implications while as big as Florida/Florida St is, it doesn’t
matter conference-wise. I went 6-1 last
week only missing Kentucky. That puts
me at 50-18 (74%) for the season.
Enough small talk let’s get to the games...
Bama at
Auburn - The game of the week (Saturday at 2:30 CDT on CBS)
“The Iron
Bowl” is back at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn this year and I think we might
be looking at one of the better matchups in years. There just hasn’t been a lot on the line for at least one of the
teams through the last decade. The last
time the game was really huge was the first time it was played in Jordan-Hare
in 1989. Bama came in undefeated and #2
in the country and Auburn came in at 8-2 but only one of the losses was
in-conference. Bama was playing for the
SEC Title and possible national title and Auburn was playing for it’s third SEC
title in a row and winning the first Auburn/Bama game ever in Auburn. The game in 1999 was much like the game this
year but Bama was a much better team. I
don’t think the gap between the teams is as far this year as it was then.
Auburn’s
incentives are well-publicized: a second consecutive SEC West title, a 2 year
home winning streak, major bowl considerations, etc... What does Bama have to play for? The media seems to think it is just for
pride and they have “nothing to lose”.
I think that is true to a small extent but mostly I disagree. First and foremost, Bama is playing for a
winning season and a possible bowl.
Most people dismiss that but I think it is pretty important. First Bama has not had back-to-back losing
seasons since the last 2 seasons before Bear Bryant got there. Second and most practical, the new coaches
want that extra practice time. It
doesn’t seem like much but with all the restrictions they have to deal with,
today’s coaches really want it.
Finally, Dennis Franchione is still looking for that first big signature
victory to hang his hat on. When Tommy
Tuberville was in this same position 2 years ago but he had already gotten big
upset wins over LSU and Georgia. With
some sort of NCAA probation guaranteed, a win here would go a long way in the
rebuilding process...
I guess the
next biggest story is the Bama QB situation.
I don’t think there is any story.
Watts will play if he can.
Andrew Zow will only play if Watts is too hurt and I think Bama would be
in trouble then. The arguments over
which one is better are moot at this point.
Tyler Watts has played the whole season and is battle tough. Andrew Zow has not played the whole year and
asking him to beat a good Auburn on the road would be pretty tough. He did come in and lead a win over a bad
Miss St team but I don’t think this week’s game will be anything like
that. Besides Zow got the hook 2 years
ago in Auburn when Bama was behind at halftime with Shaun Alexander and Chris
Samuels. The game was won mainly by
those 2 players breaking through but on the critical drive of the game Watts
threw 2 big first down passes. If Bama
is going to win this game I think it will be with Tyler Watts at the helm.
I think he
and the Bama offense will have a tough time.
The Auburn defense has looked pretty bad at times this season but in the
big games and at critical times they have been very good. It is the reason that Auburn is 7-2 right
now. The defensive line has
disappointed to an extent but is a tough experienced unit. Their battle with Bama’s young and very
talented OL will be one of the major factors in who wins the game. Auburn’s linebacking corps includes a couple
of salty seniors and a bunch of very talented young guys. Auburn has a lot of speed and that should
help them contain Bama’s option play.
Auburn’s secondary has had their ups and downs but have come up big more
times than not.
I think
Auburn’s defense will come out on fire led by the crowd. If Bama is to win this game or keep it close
I think it will be with big plays. I
don’t think they will be able to grind it out consistently. Auburn’s defense has shown it can give up
big plays. I think Auburn will stop the
run early but I could see Santonio Beard popping through for a big run or Tyler
Watts hitting a big pass on the play that looks like an option but then he
suddenly drops back and throws it.
Auburn’s defense is so aggressive that it could also be susceptible to
misdirections and bootlegs. I think the
game film that Bama probably studied most was Syracuse. I think the big thing to look for is the
20-point mark. If Auburn holds Bama
under 20 points I think they have the upper hand, if Bama scores over 20 points
then they may be very close to winning...
On the other
side of the ball, things get even more interesting. Bama’s pass defense hasn’t been very good but Auburn is best at
running the football. However Auburn
does have a decent passing game behind QB Daniel Cobb who played very well last
week. What should they do? I think will continue to run the ball the
majority of the time unless they get behind.
Again I think the battle in the trenches will be the big factor. Auburn’s senior-laden OL has been the best
in the West but Bama has some very talented players on their line. On Auburn pass plays I look for Bama’s
Kendal Moorehead to go against Auburn’s weak link in Monreko Crittenden. That matchup could be huge. However I think that is Bama’s only real
advantage in this matchup.
Obviously
Auburn TB Carnell Williams will play a huge role in this game. He has rushed for 167 and 177 yards in his
last 2 games against solid SEC defenses.
It will be a tall order for Bama to bottle him up but I think that will
be their plan. Stack the line and make
Auburn throw. That may sound insane
with their pass defense but Auburn has had a tough time getting their WRs in
the game. Auburn has a very good corps
of WR and if they can really get these guys involved, then that is the only
scenario I could see Auburn breaking it open.
Coaching-wise, the obvious advantage goes to Auburn simply because this
is Dennis Franchione’s first Auburn/Bama game and he has never been involved in
one before.
I think
overall Auburn is the better team but since they haven’t beaten Bama by more
than 10 points in over 30 years it doesn’t take a genius to pick a close
game. With both coaches track records,
everything points to a plan of pounding the other defense and piling up time of
possession and most importantly getting ahead.
There has been a lot of talk about Bama’s 4th quarter
meltdowns and I guess that could happen but in this game but if Bama has the
lead in the 4th quarter I think they will have the upper hand. Will Auburn come out tight because of what
is on the line? They did last year and
in 1997, both times the SEC West was on the line. I think the last year’s experience and being at home will take
care of a lot of that.
Final
verdict? This would be a monumental
upset win if Bama and Dennis Franchione could pull it off. They are talented enough to do it but Auburn
is the better team as evidenced by each team’s records. Auburn is at home. Auburn should win the game.
AUBURN OVER
BAMA
Florida
St at Florida (Saturday at 7:00 CDT on CBS)
You can
almost see the gleam in Florida fans’ eyes and well as head coach Steve
Spurrier. Finally for the first time in
a long time, the Gators have the better team going into a game vs. Florida St. Bobby Bowden and the Seminoles are the only
coach and team that have consistently beat Spurrier since he came to
Florida. The Gators have not beaten the
Seminoles since 1997. FSU has beaten
the Gators soundly the last 3 years.
Last year’s game was one of the very few times I have seen a Steve
Spurrier team completely outgunned and dominated.
The tables
have turned this year and the young group of Florida offensive players who were
humiliated last year are a year older and a year better. It is like a broken record in this space for
Florida every week talking about their offense... Rex Grossman is a legitimate contender for the Heisman
Trophy. What else can he do? He has thrown for 300 yards every game. He has completed 65% of his passes. He has thrown 30 TDs and he is only a
sophomore!!! His main target Jabbar
Gaffney already has 1000 yards receiving and 11 TDs. His counterpart Reche Caldwell has over 800 yards receiving and
10 TDs. Their only weakness is the running
game but Ernest Graham has done the job the last few weeks.
Meanwhile Florida
St comes in with 3 losses for the first time in 14 years. The big difference for FSU seems to be on
defense. Their rise to greatness began
when they started playing great defense in addition to Bowden’s wide open
offense. This year though the FSU defense
is giving up almost 350 yards a game and a staggering 25 points a game. The offense has fallen a little but QB Chris
Rix is already a pretty good QB and looks to get even better. However he doesn’t quite have the same
talent around him that QBs at FSU usually have. FSU’s leading WR is Javon Walker who is also a freshman. Their leading RB is another freshman in Greg
Jones.
I think these
freshman will probably be great players but I think they are going to learn the
lesson that Grossman and Gaffney learned last year. While Florida’s offense steals the headlines, the Gator defense
has quietly become one of the best in the country. They are only allowing 12 points a game (while the offense is
averaging 45). I really don’t have
anything original to say about this pick.
I think Spurrier is really going to let FSU have it if he can but hey I
would probably do the same. I am with
everybody else, I think the Gators are going to run FSU out of the stadium...
FLORIDA OVER
FLORIDA ST
Clemson
at South Carolina (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
Like the
Florida/FSU matchup above, this is a big big rivalry but does not affect the
SEC at all. It is pretty important to
South Carolina though. Lou Holtz hasn’t
taken down Tennessee or Florida and I think the fans are pretty understanding
about that. However he hasn’t beat
Clemson either and I think a lot of South Carolina fans are a little
anxious. They will be very anxious if
Clemson beats a good South Carolina team for the second year in a row. South Carolina had the game won last year
till they allowed Clemson to hit a “hail mary” pass and win on a late field
goal. It was a stinging defeat in a
game they thought they had won.
This is also
a big game for recruiting reasons. Both
teams haven’t had a great deal of success in the last decade or so and have to
fight off recruiting invasions from many different teams. Both teams are starting to taste success but
in a lot of ways for each of them, the “other” program stands in the way. This game definitely presents a contrast in
head coaches. On one side you have “old
school” Lou Holtz and his throwback Gamecocks.
On the other side you have Tommy Bowden, a new age offensive mind. For whatever reason Clemson has disappointed
this year. After a great year last year
they seemed to have taken a step back at 5-4 and 3-4 in the ACC. The main story for Clemson is a familiar one
in QB Woody Dantzler.
While the
team has taken a step back this year Dantzler has been consistent posting
numbers almost identical to last year.
He is definitely a multi-dimensional QB that can hurt you through the
air and on the ground. However no other
offensive player for Clemson really stands out. I think the biggest difference in Clemson last year and this year
has been their defense.
Last year’s
unit only gave up about 20 points a game and that included 54 points to
FSU. This year’s unit is allowing 30
points a game.
On the other
side South Carolina comes in with several serious injures. Senior QB Phil Petty is hurt and is still
questionable. Defensive leader LB
Kalimba Edwards is out for the season.
The Gamecocks come into this game limping. They are also coming off a complete whipping by Florida. However Clemson comes in after a tough loss
to Maryland as well.
This still
should be a good game. Can the tough
South Carolina defense stop Woody Dantzler?
Who is the better of the weak units, the South Carolina offense or the
Clemson defense? It is a tough pick but I don’t think Clemson is quite as good
as last year while South Carolina is probably a little better even banged
up. I also think things will be rocking
at Williams-Brice Stadium. I am going
with Lou and the Gamecocks at home...
SOUTH
CAROLINA OVER CLEMSON
Georgia
at Ole Miss (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
Georgia goes
on the road after the crushing loss to Auburn last Saturday. Coach Mark Richt is reportedly still beating
himself up about his bad call at the end of the game. Cheer up Mark, I would be more concerned about the fact that the
only TDs Georgia got in the game were on a busted play and a trick play. The Georgia offense has been very good most
of the year but has definitely hit rough spots in losses to South Carolina,
Florida and Auburn. Some of it is
because of the injuries to starting TB Musa Smith but since he was healthy for
South Carolina that doesn’t explain everything. I don’t think it is anything bad but just a young team. QB David Greene has been very good but is
still a freshman. I think this Georgia
offense is going to get better and better in the next few years.
Meanwhile the
Ole Miss Rebels return after a week off.
It may have been the best timed open week in the history of the
SEC. After a demoralizing 7-OT loss, a
week off is just what the doctor ordered.
This game is an absolute must-win for Ole Miss to have any chance at the
SEC West title. If they win I am sure
they will find the nearest TV and cheer for Bama. This game could also have big bowl implications. The difference in winning or losing could be
the difference between Florida on New Year’s Day and Shreveport,
Louisiana. It should be interesting to
see how both teams respond to disappointing losses. This should be a very good game.
Both teams feature great young QBs and opportunistic defenses. My first feeling is to pick Georgia
considering the past history of the schools.
However I think Ole Miss has a much better running game, is rested and
is at home. I am going to go with...
OLE MISS OVER
GEORGIA
Tennessee
at Kentucky (Saturday at 11:30 CDT on Jefferson Pilot)
The Vols head
to Lexington this week. They will meet
a “fired-up” Wildcat team as UK won their first SEC game in 2 years over
Vandy. Kentucky looked like it did when
Tim Couch was there. QB Jared Lorenzen
was brilliant against Vandy throwing for over 450 yards with 6 TDs on 26 of 37
passing plus no INTs. You can’t have a
much better day than that. However
while it looked like a Mumme-like day, coach Guy Moriss still ran the ball 30
times. Moriss has done about as good a job
as anybody could have done with this Kentucky team. He didn’t have much to work with but he got this team back to
basics and has delivered on a more balanced offense and a better defense.
Unfortunately
it probably won’t matter Saturday as he is up against a Vol team that is
getting better and better. The defense
has been solid all year but the offense is finally clicking now. The Vols have so many weapons on offense now. RB Travis Stephens is the best in the
conference while QB Casey Clausen has improved dramatically. Receivers Kelley Washington and Dante
Stallworth are right up there with Florida’s dynamic duo and LSU’s Josh
Reed. It is human nature to go ahead
and start thinking about Florida and take these games for granted. It will be a tough job to stay focused for
the Vol coaches and players but they have been up to the task till now. The Vols roll on toward Gainesville...
TENNESSEE
OVER KENTUCKY
Miss St
at Arkansas (Saturday at 1:00 CDT)
This game is
usually related directly to the SEC title game. From 1997 through 2000 it directly effected who went. In 1997 and 2000, State was leading to go to
Atlanta when Arkansas upset them and sent Auburn. Both years State beat Auburn head-to-head. In 1999 State was right behind Bama when the
Razorbacks picked them off. However in
1998 State played Arkansas and the winner went to Atlanta and State got
them. The funny thing is that the 3
times State has lost, I think they had the better team and in 1998 when they
won I think Arkansas had the better team.
This year the game doesn’t mean much.
State’s season of misery continued in Tuscaloosa last week. The played pretty good some of the game but
early penalties and turnovers put them in a big hole.
Meanwhile
Arkansas is riding a 4-game winning streak.
They were able to throw off their 7-OT hangover and take down Central
Florida last week. I think they should
about be back to normal this week.
Certainly it has been proven that anything can happen when these 2 teams
get together but it is hard to bet against Arkansas at this point. They have beaten 3 of the better teams in
the conference in a row. Houston Nutt
has been nearly unbeatable at home losing only 3 times in 3 years. Also State just doesn’t look like their
heart is in it. I am going with...
ARKANSAS OVER
MISS ST